AGAMI BRIEF
| Agami Briefs are AAA’s outlook reports. Agami (आगामी) which means upcoming in Hindi, are concise memos on important forthcoming events. Agamis aim to inform Members of what to keep an eye out for and when. Earlier in the year AAA gave a rundown of our top geopolitical risks for Asia in 2020. In light of the unprecedented challenges brought on by coronavirus, we are revisiting these picks with new views and opinions on the issues to watch. We wish all our Members good health during these difficult times. |
Needless to say, forecasts of the important issues to watch this year have been eclipsed as the coronavirus swept across the world. Some issues, however, remain salient. AAA’s own forecasting of the top geopolitical risks in Asia this year which included developments in the South China Sea, Hong Kong’s tenacious protest movement, and the U.S. presidential elections in November, have not lost relevance in spite of the world’s focus on coronavirus. Rather, the pandemic has added a new layer of complexity to these issues that will need to be accounted for as we move into the second half of the year.
Tensions in the South China Sea
There have already been movements in the South China Sea that have caused concern and irritation for claimant states who are all dealing with health crises at home and who cannot effectively focus state resources to deal with another major crisis. So much of foreign policy depends on seizing the narrative in the public international – or at least regional – space, particularly on issues that countries do not have a competitive advantage on.
Being crowded out of that space at this time means that diplomats can no longer rely on megaphone diplomacy as a tactic but must either take the initiative or act in association with other like-minded parties. That has become increasingly difficult to achieve and renders even the slightest of moves in the South China Sea overtly hostile and egregious.
Hong Kong Protests
Hong Kong’s protest movement has seen a quick return ever since the easing of movement restrictions in the city. As the movement evolves into a broadchurch incorporating moderate liberal constituencies seeking a return to a more strict definition of one country two systems and groups actively opposed to China, there is both a risk that the movement could turn endemic and therefore unresolvable or too diverse in its objectives that it will inevitably invite more extremist factions to break away.
There are signs that the latter situation has been realised to a greater degree but it is still far too early to make a certain assessment. Nevertheless it seems apparent that the SAR government’s successful management of the pandemic has done little to improve trust with the people. If the point has not been made more clear – popular grievances in Hong Kong are no longer rooted in performance metrics and will be increasingly defined by the politics of ideology and identity.
US Presidential Elections
The U.S. presidential election will remain a defining event for Asia this year not merely because of the impact that U.S. relations has on Asia but because the result will either confirm or reject the importance of anti-China political positions in the U.S. mainstay for years, if not decades, to come.
It is no longer a surprise to anyone that a large cross-party bloc of the U.S. establishment has grown fiercely oppositional to China’s moves in many areas. It continues to be of interest how the flavour of that opposition develops. In the maximalist view, the average American will begin to think of China as a threat to world peace and this will have serious implications on how the strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China will play out in the next 5 years. In the minimalist view, the average American will perceive China as a party to be treated with caution and suspicion, but still by and large a competitor rather than a threat. How the coronavirus is understood in American society will play a critical role in the shifting of national perspectives towards China and will surely be a subject of considerable importance when election season begins later this year.
By Julia Perrotta and Hasumi Tano, Staff Writers